Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurley

0:00We do live in a world where information is really cut up, but we also live in a world where you can have access to more information than you ever could.

0:10What are the key mental models that you keep coming back to that sort of explain how the world works to you?

0:16I'm a big believer in systems thinking.

0:19There's a book called Thinking in Systems that I read.

0:21What does that mean to think in systems?

0:23I'm on the board of the Santa Fe Institute.

0:25The Santa Fe Institute studies complexity theory.

0:27I would describe complex systems as multivariable, nonlinear systems.

0:33And multivariable, nonlinear systems are very hard to predict.

0:37They can behave one way for a long time, and then one variable can switch and they can behave another way.

0:41The weather, stock markets, all these things.

0:44There's consequences that can be first, second, third derivative.

0:49And, you know, you can't just think with a linear model or just think one variable because things can go way off the path.

0:58Being aware that if you make a change here, it could change something here, which could change something there.